Radar Armeia's interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
- The National Assembly of France unanimously adopted the resolution with the demand to stop Azerbaijan's aggression against Armenia and to establish a stable peace in the South Caucasus. What is the political significance of this resolution, and what can it give to Armenia?
- It was clear that the National Assembly of France would come to such a resolution with the consistency of the Senate. This is very similar to the bicameral keys of France during the 44-day war in calling for the recognition of the independence of Artsakh. Such resolutions are playing cards in the hands of the executive to be used in relations with Azerbaijan. There is already talk of imposing sanctions against Azerbaijan if the invasion of the sovereign territories of Armenia continues. Politically, of course, there is the subtask of counterbalancing Russian influence in the South Caucasus. Between the Russian mediation and the dissolution of the OSCE, France is working to assume a role in the region and get involved in the process. The resolutions of the legislative field pursue that goal.
- How would you interpret the statement of the French Foreign Ministry that the resolutions of the French Parliament calling for sanctions against Azerbaijan do not reflect the official line of Paris?
- Let's compare again with the previous bicameral resolutions, which were not transferred to the executive field as a direction. At the same time, let's note that the position of Macron and, in general, official Paris was the most direct against Azerbaijani aggression. This caused Baku to veto the participation of Paris in the negotiation process. This statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and reviving the Brussels quadrilateral are going simultaneously. This implies that in the case of Baku's veto, Macron can bring the resolutions of his legislator to the executive field.
- In this context, taking into account Aliyev's cancellation of the Brussels meeting with the participation of the French president, could this resolution be an excuse for Baku to bring the negotiations to a dead end?
- It is not excluded that Baku will continue to make excuses for such resolutions. The issue largely depends on the ongoing negotiations on the Baku-Ankara-Moscow line. Baku's refusal to involve France stems primarily from the interests of Moscow, which prefers to maintain the role of the primary mediator in agreement with Ankara.
- The US ambassador to the Republic of Armenia also stated that if Russia withdraws from the region, there is now a limited opportunity for the US to assume a more vital role and end the bloodshed. Does this mean that the USA also admits that Russia is dominant in the region? Are they not going to fight against it?
- The context of the announcement is critical. The US ambassador to RA will soon assume the position of the US ambassador to Russia, and this announcement is made on the eve of taking a new place. The message is that she will try to implement US-Russian cooperation to establish peace in the region.
- Against the backdrop of the USA-Russia competition, the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border continues to be tense. Which parties can restrain Azerbaijan's aggression, and why is it not doing so?
- Contradictory phenomena are recorded. Ankara talks about the positive and practical phase of relations with Yerevan, Bayramov complains about the positions of the Armenian side, and Baku fires at the border. Official Washington representatives hint at deep negotiations with Yerevan and backing away from their previous demands to withdraw troops from Azerbaijan. The meeting in Brussels is canceled, but new attempts to restart it are seen. The co-chair format of the OSCE Minsk Group is disintegrating, and at the same time, competitions to form new mediating arrangements are underway. The CSTO does not make a political assessment but offers a package of assistance, the most crucial axis of which is sending missions to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. A conflict of tasks on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border line will begin with the mediation. All of these speak of the geopolitical competition for penetration and involvement in the South Caucasus, which can have a restraining role in Baku's haste. Azerbaijan cannot solve the problems in front of it in the time it imagined, which is why it is shooting.
Hayk Magoyan
