Why did Garibashvili leave, and what is happening in Georgia?

Previously, we wrote that the unofficial leader of Georgia, founder of the ruling "Georgian Dream" party, and the wealthiest man in Georgia, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, is returning to active politics.

At the ruling "Georgian Dream" congress, he announced his willingness to lead the party he created again and hold the honorary president post. According to Ivanishvili, several reasons prompted him to make such a decision, among which he considered the "geopolitical situation" to be the most important, as well as the "risks of corruption and internal confrontation" among supporters of the ruling party.

A new change is being implemented in Georgia's political life. The Prime Minister of Georgia, political veteran Irakli Gharibashvili, has resigned. The most likely candidate for Prime Minister is Irakli Kobakhidze, the acting chairman of the "Georgian Dream" party, deputy, and former chairman of the National Assembly of Georgia.

Before any politician, regardless of the political regime, be it democracy, monarchy, or autocracy, there are always two problems: the main thing is to preserve power, and the secondary thing is to create conditions for a more or less successful image of the country. The problem of maintaining control in democratic countries is directly related to a successful communication policy with voters. Sometimes, this leads to rather ugly forms of populism and decisions that are against the national interests of the country but in the interest of populist figures and the collection of votes.

Ivanishvili's situation, however, is quite different and not classical or textbook. In the government model he built, the problem of communicating with voters is secondary. The developed pre-election technologies and the policy of dividing the opposition allow us not to worry about the result of the elections. It is much more essential to maintain control over various powerful and influential groups within the government and stop any attempt by Ivanishvili to stay out of the government system. During the years of the "Georgian Dream" rule, almost all the rotations of prime ministers and ministers aimed to serve this problem.

The current Irakli rearrangement is no exception. What was there until 2023? December, when Ivanishvili announced his "second coming.". Georgia received the status of a candidate for EU membership, which marked the interests of the West in the South Caucasus. At the same time, the Western partners and, first of all, the USA have already openly expressed their dissatisfaction with the fact that Georgia has become a part of the Russian ecosystem, actively participates in parallel exports, and serves the economic interests of the Russian Federation. The USA also hinted that a real possibility of serious support for the opposition has been created.
Moreover, it referred to the internal opposition to the "Georgian Dream." Those impulses probably created some turbulence within the ruling team. That is why Ivanishvili has to return to public politics in the position of honorary chairman of the party, with the right to nominate the prime minister.

Garibashvili and his team today have severe financial resources and external support from China. This circumstance made him potentially dangerous to the current government system. In addition, Gharibashvili's characters and several team ministers seriously angered Georgia's Western partners.

Thus, by transferring, Ivanishvili also solves several problems. First, the potential risk of system imbalance is eliminated. Second, if not curtsy, then at least signals are given to the Western partners. And finally, a pre-election government is being formed, which should win the upcoming elections, and Irakli Kobakhidze will be the number one. And Kobakhidze is a former "Sorosian," a professional lawyer, a skilled civilian expert, and a figure loyal to Ivanishvili, who does not have the same team and financial resources as Gharibashvili, so he is not dangerous, at least at this stage.