Viewpoint

"Three-phase mediation" does not reduce the probability of a new escalation but increases it by three times

Vahram Atanesyan, a former member of the NKR National Assembly, and political analyst, wrote on his Facebook page:

"I expressed my opinion about the so-called Brussels platform of negotiations from the beginning. It is pointless to imagine that the European Union (including France) or the United States will make an effort to make the status quo of November 9 a legal treaty and to establish peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is a fruitless fantasy when they say that the USA and France do not consider the NK issue closed. The Nagorno-Karabakh issue is still open by the announcement of November 9. The "three-phase mediation" does not reduce the probability of a new escalation but increases it three times because Washington, Paris, or Brussels can play a valuable role in our region if Russia loses the leverage to manage the situation, a new Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict occurs (more extensive, rather than on September 13-14), and a recent truce is concluded, either through the mediation of the USA, France, or the European Union.
We expect that "the world will condemn the Azerbaijani aggression, and everything will return to the pro-Armenian way." It won't happen. We will have new sufferings and bitter disappointments. The only possible "compensation" for the heaviest defeat in the 2020 war is the November 9 document. We can have more if the new war clears the Kelbajar-Lachin line. In this situation, only the extreme romantics can believe in it, and the great "friends" of the Armenian people can inspire such an adventure.