Levon Azizyan, director of the "Hydrometeorology and Monitoring Center" SNCO, reported that Elon Musk's SpaceX Starlink satellites are falling one after another. In a study published in the Frontiers resource, a group of physicists from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, led by Danny Oliveira, summarized the "fall of satellites" and noted some patterns.
SpaceX first launched Starlink satellites in 2019; the following year, in 2020, several fell. However, given that Musk launched his Starlinks in huge quantities, the numbers were within reasonable limits at first. Thus, in 2020, only two satellites went out of service. But already in 2021 - 78. The "satellite drop" has remained at about the same level for two more years (2022: 99, 2023: 88), but last year, something strange happened: 316 satellites, unfortunately, burned up in the atmosphere. In total, the communications constellation lost 583 objects.
According to data from the beginning of the year, there were 7086 Starlinks in orbit, which is skyrocketing - the current statistics "see" 8873 satellites in space. Despite the large number of Starlinks, approximately every 15th satellite has been lost, which should be alarming. But why are they falling mainly recently?
The research team compared the drop graph with various natural phenomena and found a connection with solar activity. The researchers found that the intense solar activity of the current solar cycle has already had a significant impact on the multiple Starlink re-entry into the atmosphere. This is an exciting time for studying satellite orbital resistance because, at the peak of solar activity, the number of satellites in low Earth orbit is the highest in human history.
Never before have there been so many satellites in low orbit simultaneously. Starlink began to be launched, as already noted, in 2019, during the period of minimum solar activity. Last year, 2024, according to NASA, was the year of maximum solar activity.
The sun's activity fluctuates over an 11-year period. When numerous spots appear on our star, powerful explosions and solar flares occur. Material from the Sun rushes through the so-called coronal holes, including to Earth, where magnetic storms occur.
Solar plasma reaching Earth and causing a magnetic storm has another effect—heating the upper atmosphere. As the atmosphere heats up, it expands. Satellites begin to experience greater resistance to their flight, drift out of orbit, and eventually fall.
Studies have shown that 70% of satellites have fallen not during strong but during moderate and weak magnetic storms. This is most likely due to the fact that weak storms, as a rule, last longer and gradually disrupt the orbit, leading the device to its inevitable end.
