Turkish journalist Barçın Yınaç, who is in Armenia with Turkish journalists, analyzed Turkey-Azerbaijan relations and their impact on the region and Turkey-Armenia relations on the website turkeyindepth.com.
In an article titled "Who Makes the Decisions? Azerbaijan's Growing Influence on Turkey," he noted that although the two countries have good relations, they have differences on the issue of peace in the Caucasus. According to him, Turkey considers signing a peace treaty in the region a priority due to a possible peace deal in Ukraine. Baku is in no hurry and seems not worried about Russia's return to the area during peace in Ukraine.
Yınaç made a striking comparison, comparing Turkey-Azerbaijan relations to US-Israeli relations, where the foreign policy of a large state has become a "hostage" of a small one. In this context, Yınaç made the following points:
- Aliyev does not leave Ankara any room for maneuver in its relations with Armenia.
- Baku does not allow Ankara to start a dialogue with Yerevan, despite the end of the Karabakh war and the ongoing peace negotiations between Baku and Yerevan.
- Although Turkey had previously promised a parallel dialogue, Baku wants Turkey to start normalizing relations with Armenia only after the final Baku-Yerevan agreement.
Yinanç also touched on Ankara's steps, which were met with resistance from Baku:
- Turkey urges Azerbaijan to accelerate the signing of the peace agreement, but Aliyev ignores these calls.
- Turkey sees Nikol Pashinyan as an essential opportunity to achieve peace, but Azerbaijan continues demonstrating a tough stance.
The Turkish journalist made the following points regarding the two countries' differing approaches and interests in the region:
If Russia achieves peace in Ukraine on its terms, it may turn its attention to the Caucasus. However, this does not bother Azerbaijan, as it is more beneficial for the latter to have a weak Armenia under Russia's influence than an independent, pro-Western Armenia that will grow stronger over time.
- After the collapse of the USSR, the Republic of Armenia in the Caucasus pursued a policy of reducing the dependence of the countries of the region on Russia without becoming hostile to the latter.
According to the article's author, Ankara's leverage to influence Baku is limited despite the differences in the above. Turkey's dilapidated economy makes Erdogan dependent on Aliyev, who has made quite significant investments in Turkey and, after the war, gave construction permits to pro-government companies in Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, energy ties between the two countries are substantial since the Republic of Armenia wants to become an energy hub.
