World
Putin is not preparing for a nuclear strike but a long-term positional war.
In its summary analysis, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) devoted the central part of the report to the arguments that, judging by some circumstances, the Russian president is preparing for a protracted conflict using a positional war, keeping the currently occupied territories and trying to conquer new ones, contrary to the perception that Putin is preparing for a sharp escalation, for example, the use of nuclear weapons or, on the contrary, a ceasefire.
According to ISW analysts, this is evidenced, in particular, by Putin's "partial mobilization" and the positional retreat of the Russian army to the left bank of the Dnieper. Putin expects the now-mobilized reservists to be in place in Ukraine by the spring thaw, and by then, the draft conscripts will have completed four to six months of initial training and be sent to war for new one's offensives.
At the same time, according to ISW, Putin dreams that the cold winter and fuel shortages will force some European countries to cut aid to Ukraine and become "softer" in relations with Russia.
