Viewpoint

Azerbaijan's game becomes a sub-game of a bigger game that would lead to a "neither you nor him" outcome

Styopa Safaryan, the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs founder, wrote on her Facebook page.

"Customs clearance" of the Berdzor corridor is a serious and in-depth analysis topic. The gradual "invasion" of Azerbaijan's ambitions with its sovereignty into that territory was predictable even after the war, and it got more flesh and blood in the political discourse of the last period. The topics of allegedly transporting mines and weapons from Armenia to Artsakh, 14 Iranian citizens going to Artsakh, or "illegally" transporting minerals from Artsakh to Armenia were the best-prepared operations. It's just that the Azerbaijanis didn't know that their game was becoming a sub-game of a bigger game, which would lead to the outcome of "neither you nor him" and the Russian institutional "peacekeeper-customs" control would become a "balanced solution." The question of Baku's demand for a symmetrical Meghri corridor to the Berdzor corridor is to force Stepanakert or Yerevan not to oppose this option particularly. Otherwise, they would have to pay for it again by satisfying Baku's "Zangezuri corridor" demand, especially since it is no longer possible to talk about Armenian control in the Berdzor corridor. Therefore, the Russian mini-customs point was preferable to the Azerbaijani customs point... In fact, in the case of such a result, the picture and the game become more multi-layered because, in reality, Baku complicates its problems to no less extent than our problems... Russia got it again is one more thing it wants: total and customs control of the corridor, it has created a precedent, and in the next stage, it will try to project that model in the south of Armenia... Here it will need Baku's provocations, new aggressive manifestations, so that the Armenian side faces the impossibility of keeping Syunik in front and once again be guided "not by the Turk, in the worst case, at least by the Russian" by the formula... In fact, during all the manifestations of Azerbaijan's aggression towards Armenia in the last two years, Russia's "silence and neutrality" is about this: you can't keep it, at least give it to me... Until now, this sliding aggression has been temporarily stopped only by Armenian forces, relatively capable divisions, unfortunately not in all sectors (the Ministry of Defense has a severe challenge of qualitative, psychological, and professional investigation and analysis of our commandos and contractors in those sectors, let's say nothing more), the intervention of the West and Iran showing its teeth... So, until spring, Armenia has enormous homework to do to prevent the new aggression of Azerbaijan, which has another beneficiary, and the preparations are undisguised...
That is why it is necessary.
- day and night to deal with the army, armament, deep, silent modernization of the military, without salutes, quickly, within months, bunkering, furnishing all the positions,
- rapid formation of intelligence, counter-intelligence, with the best standards, keeping away from the process those who, by "getting involved," will not allow reforms to take place, as happened in the case of the Armed Forces...
- not to allow Azerbaijan to get an opportunity to consider Western or even Russian-style negotiations as failed, to actively work with everyone, not to enable Azerbaijan to sell its new war as a "dividend" for everyone...
- to extend the period of EU and OSCE observation missions, making it a problem to obtain a tangible political result, for example, based on the reports of these missions at the EU or OSCE level, the publication of Armenia's political position of being subjected to aggression...
- bring order to the complexity of the information space, exclude hybrid intrusions into our info-space and increase the resilience of the public,
- if possible, bring as many international events as possible to Armenia next year."