Viewpoint

Russia will take the game to the point that other competing formats will not work

Styopa Safaryan, the founder of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, wrote on her Facebook page.

"With the tripartite declaration of Sochi

Russia

-tried to formally resolve the issue of his formal involvement in the Azerbaijan-Armenia normalization process, suspended in the context of the activation of the Brussels and Washington formats. Russia showed that it exists. But that's all.
- It made Armenia and Azerbaijan sign that there was a demand for Russian peacekeeping in Artsakh, making it more difficult for Azerbaijan to remove them. Two years before the expiration of the term, Azerbaijan confirmed that they should stay because they play an essential role... This will significantly hinder Baku in raising the issue on Western platforms...
- renewed the "commitment" of the parties to the previous tripartite statements as a basis and road map for moving forward with them...
- included the decisions of the Brussels and Washington platforms, respecting each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty, the inadmissibility of changing borders by force, and the Alma-Ata agreement, the UN Charter. Russia hopes that bringing Western agendas under its control will make them meaningless. But it will not be like that.
- Armenia once again closed the issue of providing a corridor at the expense of its national sovereignty. It received another (perhaps with little OGG) documentary basis for creating a normative basis for reversing Azerbaijani aggression. The risk is that Azerbaijan got a small window to subject all of that to a selective interpretation, that it has reached the point in all capitals that Armenia is forced to recognize Artsakh as part of it. But fortunately, neither Moscow nor Washington has closed and will not approach the Artsakh issue. It seems only to Azerbaijan.
- There is a greater risk that Aliyev, angry at not getting a corridor, will try to spread a regime of sovereignty over the Lachin hall and even, to punish, try to "shut down" it. And this is a conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan because Armenia handed over there more than it should have, according to which, with Russia's fault and permission, it must fight to preserve the current de facto non-Azerbaijani state of the Lachin Corridor. ..
The rest is nonsense. Russia leads the game and will show the game so that the other competing formats do not work; the West and the parties to the conflict cut off the shackles, accept and recognize what is there: the Russian architecture of regional security and the Russian plan to delay the resolution of the competition and maintain the status quo. But that will not happen either because pre-February 24th, Russia was something else in the world, and in the Caucasus, post-24th, Russia is something else...
So, the Armenian side should quickly try to get benefits in the form of solving short-term problems, and since the issues of our security plan are already quite interestingly diversified but also legitimized in all the capitals, continue to do what it has done in the last month: diversified solutions."