Styopa Safaryan, the founder of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, wrote on his Facebook page.

"From the explosion of the Crimean bridge, the "wheat corridor" to Putin's new game with Erdogan and Aliyev "gas hub" against the USA, the EU...
While the former Deputy Minister of Defense Artak Zakaryan "rushed" to please Moscow by "confirming" Armenia's "participation" in the terrorist bombing of the Crimean bridge, Moscow probably read the clarifications of the Armenian company and the video evidence provided to the mass media (that during the reformulation of the cargo in Armenia, its contents did not change) and the name of a very "interesting" country is already heard on the official airwaves.
During the Thursday "Evening with Solovyov" discussion, there was an outburst of anger about why Turkey's name was not mentioned. After all, the cargo from Odesa could have appeared in Bulgaria only through Turkey because Turkey inspects and passes the ships of the "wheat corridor" from the port of Odesa...
Kremlin propagandists do not hide that Putin should use this fact as a tool of "blackmail" in the negotiations with Erdogan because the term "wheat corridor" is expiring. In terms of extending it, Turkey is the second most exciting country after Ukraine, especially since Erdogan is also in the upcoming elections. It needs a "dividend" to get ahead of its competitor, which currently lags in the ranking...
Of course, even if the chain of Ukraine-Turkey-Bulgaria-Georgia is adjusted in the case of the Crimean bridge terrorism, it is still impossible to eliminate the link of Armenia because it entered the EAEU territory through its territory, that is why they have started to bypass the topic of Armenia at the moment gently.
The Kremlin propagandists gently notice that Armenia will, of course, "give explanations, because its citizen (in fact, one of the detainees is a dual citizen, has the citizenship of Georgia and Armenia) is also involved in this case," however, it is evident that Yerevan has already given its explanations. And the evidence was made public and provided to the Russian side... And its publication already creates a problem for the chain drawn by the Russian FSB... The problem is how to "deliver" the explosives from Georgia to Armenia and then to Russia...
This "technical" difficulty is not an obstacle to claim that, in addition to Ukraine, three more countries - Bulgaria, Turkey, and Georgia - are suspected of being involved in terrorism...
However, this was not the only thing noticeable in the Russian speech. The other element shows why Armenia is not interested, or they are not, that Armenia's "ring" denies the version of the Russian FSB... The problem is the port of Odesa, which they want to hit as a "terror den"... More precisely, the problem is the incomprehensible and unrealizable goal of completely depriving Ukraine of the Black Sea, starting to eliminate all kinds of infrastructure, including port infrastructure, and doing it under the slogan of fighting terrorism... Another such target is Estonia, accusing it of being an infrastructure hub for organizing terrorist attacks against Russia. Of course, Estonia's membership in NATO would prevent it from doing so now, as long as Russia avoids open and direct confrontation... And this Black Sea coast and Odesa seem like an attractive piece, especially since Kremlin experts believe that the tactics of recent days, firing rockets from the capital of Ukraine to the west, are more effective for Moscow than positional battles...
It is not excluded that all this is the same kind of blackmail as linking this or that country to the Crimean bridge terrorism. One thing is clear, Russia has set a problem to get something from the "wheat corridor" and Turkey, especially since Erdogan is the second "beneficiary" in terms of re-election and regional ambitions.
And this is where Putin's new proposal to Erdogan, formulated as an "energy/gas junction," becomes extremely dangerous. As Kremlin propagandists say, it is risky because Turkey cannot be considered a reliable partner, and it is unclear how far the new Russian-Turkish game will go. However, they do not doubt one thing Turkey and the energy sector are where it is possible to create new problems for the USA and the EU, as they did in the case of Saudi Arabia/OPEC and what they are also working on in the Chinese and Iranian. Other directions create as many platforms of pressure and problems as possible for the USA so that they become "critical" and provide a game for Russia. That's why they chose Turkey, which has four pipelines, one of which is purely for Turkey, and the rest is for export, according to which to the Balkans and the north of the Mediterranean Sea. The idea is to mix Russian gas with Azerbaijani gas through the Turkish flow and Azerbaijani pipes, which cannot be determined in Europe, unlike oil. As a result of all that, European gas-importing countries came under Turkish dependence, and what is essential, Germany and Holland became the first affected countries. They are especially angry with Germany because it was again announced to provide Ukraine with only weapons which are not even in the German army's arsenal. Among them is "Suzanne" anti-tank systems, which also become anti-aircraft missile systems. They are already in Ukraine, as well as the latest air defenses, which will be delivered soon... To punish Germany for the "orientation" of the sensitive USA, the Kremlin thought up the game of this gas hub to solve Berlin's problems, also at the hands of Ankara...
In addition to meeting Erdogan's election or regional ambitions, Kremlin experts hint that Turkey may also have other expectations, and strengthening will bring risks in other regions. The Caucasus is not mentioned among them, but it is implied that it is possible to reach an agreement in the Black Sea basin if Moscow and Ankara can agree on the de facto elimination of the state of Ukraine. It is difficult to say what territories Russia is ready to cede to Ankara because Moscow has its eyes on Odesa, and Crimea will not surrender to Ankara either.
At the bottom is the Caucasus, where Russia is at least considered the sole owner, unlike the Balkans or the Black Sea basin. Especially since Azerbaijan is a part of that dirty game here: in the end, Russian gas must be mixed with Azerbaijani gas and exported to Europe under its name. And to participate in the dirty program, Aliyev knows what he will demand from the Kremlin and whose expense it will be...
That is why Macron intensified not only the topic of not leaving Armenia alone and telling the truth to Russia but also took an apparent anti-Azerbaijani position, accusing it of being a dirty tool of Russia's dirty games. Moreover, Macron gave significant momentum to the flash mob launched by a French publicist not to compromise any value or principle for gas or oil...
Perhaps, in this dangerous situation, the deployment of European observers along the border of Armenia becomes of strategic importance, whose mission will be to monitor the ceasefire, to report to Brussels who is the aggressor, as well as to facilitate the demarcation of the Armenia-Azerbaijani border, giving the aggressor exit positions. to carry
It's a complicated geopolitical game, and you must play it right."