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What are Armenia's external risks? Foreign Intelligence Service report published
The Foreign Intelligence Service of the Republic of Armenia has published the annual report on the external risks of the Republic of Armenia for 2026 in Armenian and English.
The extensive military-political risk service notes:
"A military escalation between Azerbaijan and Armenia has become almost improbable; the talk and actions of the so-called 'return of Western Azerbaijanis' promoted by Azerbaijan pose risks."
According to the SRS, "the talk and actions of the so-called 'return of Western Azerbaijanis' promoted by Azerbaijan pose risks."
It is noted that a stable and long-term resolution of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2026 is unlikely. The risk of a recurrence of mutual strikes between Israel and Iran in 2026 will remain, expanding the scope of Armenia's security problems.
There is also a reference to the 2026 NA elections ahead of hybrid threats: "In the context of the 2026 elections, the influence operations carried out against Armenia by various external actors will most likely become more comprehensive, complex, and large-scale.
It is likely that information-related harmful actions using false, distorted, or out-of-context information, malicious cyber operations will be carried out, as well as the activation of an agent network "on the ground", the generation of supposedly "local" political activism, the organization of programs targeting youth and activist groups, exploiting and manipulating their political views and patriotic feelings."
The report is available at the following link.
