Politics

"I have good and bad news." Mirzoyan

On October 2, within the framework of the Warsaw Security Forum, RA Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan participated in "World Order and Democracy. map for the South Caucasus" to the high-level discussion.

- Since our conversation will be about the world order, I suggest addressing the topic related to the latest developments. Armenia's neighbor Iran fired more than a hundred rockets at Israel yesterday evening. Are you worried that a regional war might break out, and what consequences might it have for your country?

- Dear attendees, I welcome everyone. It's a pleasure to be here, and I look forward to an exciting discussion. You chose the first question rather tricky. Suppose you follow the general geopolitical situation, trends, and policies in the South Caucasus. In that case, we in Armenia are trying to do everything possible to ensure peace in our region, but we see that our countries in the broader neighborhood are launching missile strikes at each other. Of course, we are concerned. We cannot encourage or welcome any escalation and hope this conflict will be resolved quickly.

- Let's focus a little more on the South Caucasus. The dispute over the Karabakh region has been at the heart of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan for decades, and less than a year ago, more than 140,000 people were displaced and sought refuge in Armenia after an attack by Azerbaijan. How was Armenia able to accept this mass flow of people?

- First of all, regarding accepting refugees, the population displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh was the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was a big challenge for us. It is a big challenge for any government worldwide to accept more than 140,000 refugees in 2 to 3 days. We have done our best to provide them shelter, food, and other basic needs. Of course, we have turned to the international community's help and highly appreciate the support provided. Now, it is time for the next phase, where we have to meet the medium and long-term needs somehow. First, I will discuss the housing problem and employment; more effort is needed. Our policy is as follows: if these people cannot return to their homes, then our policy is to make every effort so that they integrate into the society of the Republic of Armenia, find a job, build new houses in our country, and stay in Armenia.

- How have these developments affected your government's efforts to democratize Armenia?

- Not only the influx of refugees, but also the roots of this problem, I mean the attack of Azerbaijan, which happened in 2023, but also the whole story, which began in 2020, when Azerbaijan started a war against Nagorno Karabakh, then during the war, and after that, Azerbaijani forces invaded and occupied the Republic of Armenia sovereign territories, that's the whole picture. Of course, in this situation, many people in Armenia asked questions, and they began to question the effectiveness of democracy. Interestingly, the questions were: "Okay, maybe democracy is intrinsically good for people's prosperity and so on, but can democracy also ensure our security?

Thus, after the war, which I spoke about, several internal crises appeared in the Republic of Armenia. We decided to hold extraordinary parliamentary elections to provide a specific solution to this situation. We had early parliamentary elections in 2021, and democracy was one of the main topics we discussed during the pre-election campaign. Fortunately, the pro-democracy political party, my political party, won the elections and formed the government. This means that the citizens of Armenia supported two things: first of all, the government's peace agenda and the further democratization of the country.

- Do these developments affect the population's attitude towards Russia? Russia was trying to maintain its influence on Armenia through this conflict, but when the Azeri attacks took place last year, no action was taken. Did this drive Armenians away from Russia to Europe?

- It is a fascinating question. You know, it is no longer a secret that there is great disappointment in Armenian society regarding Russia, its help, and its alliance with the Russian Federation because, for decades, the population of Armenia thought that in such situations, Russia would help us, protect us, etc. Now they see it's not so, and we don't get help. Moreover, you know that after the 2020 war, Russian peacekeepers were sent to Nagorno Karabakh to ensure population security. Still, the peacekeeping mission did not justify itself during the forced displacement.

Moreover, like Russia and other countries, we are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Still, when attacks took place on our internationally recognized borders, we again witnessed that neither Russia nor our other CSTO allies responded. Their response needed to meet our expectations. So, as I already mentioned, it has caused a lot of disappointment, and now people in Armenia are looking at other options.

We really believe in democracy's principles, and understandably, this brings us closer to the EU and the USA. Thus, from the point of view of the values ​​formed in society, we have approached the EU and Western countries. In terms of security, the population of Armenia saw itself psychologically connected to Russia. Now, that second component has collapsed, and people see no other reason to prevent closer relations with the EU.

- I wanted to talk to you about the peace treaty Azerbaijan and Armenia have negotiated for months. There is no progress at the moment. Can you shed some light on the situation?

- During the last 2-3 years, a tremendous amount of work has been done despite the escalation of the situation, the attacks on the territory of Armenia, and all the challenges. We, the Armenian side, have been very constructive during the negotiations. You know, there's good news and bad news.

The good news is that we succeeded; we somehow managed to have some success with the Azerbaijani side. For example, recently, we adopted the first legal document between the two countries, and we adopted the regulation of the joint work of the relevant border commissions. These commissions are working towards demarcating the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In this document, we agreed that the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991 should be the basis of the demarcation process, which is an outstanding achievement. To not burden you with details, I will only say that, among other things, the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration stated that the parties that were republics of the former Soviet Union, mainly 12 of the 15 republics of the Soviet Union, accepted this document. Thus, according to this document, the republics recognize that the former administrative borders between us, the Soviet Socialist Republics, now become internationally recognized interstate borders. This means that we have a border with Azerbaijan and a solid basis for this when starting negotiations on border demarcation.

The bad news is that there are several other topics that we are negotiating, such as the more comprehensive document and the peace treaty. Imagine we have a situation when we have almost finished and finalized the text of the reconciliation agreement; the draft is there, but we don't sign it. The Azerbaijani side does not want to sign this peace document. The peace agreement, for some reason, with some calculations, puts forward new preconditions every time, and we see that they do not want to sign the document. This time, they say more things can be agreed on, but we believe that there is no agreement in the world between the two countries that will regulate all aspects of their relationship, all areas. At the same time, we can sign this solemn document and then continue to negotiate on the remaining issues. We do not see this political will from the Azerbaijani side.

- The COP29 climate conference will be held in Baku in November. Could this be an impetus for speeding up the peace process?

- I hope so. If you remember, we supported Azerbaijan's candidacy to hold this COP29 event in Baku. Indeed, I believe that now we are at an important juncture, there is a real opportunity to close the chapter of the conflict in our region, at least between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and open a new chapter of the era of peace and cooperation. The current situation, however, is different.

- Many Armenians remain concerned about possible threats from Azerbaijan. How is it possible to build a sense of trust in society for lasting peace?

- Indeed, there are severe concerns that Azerbaijan will try to implement new military plans against Armenia and our territories. For example, the Azerbaijani side now uses the "Western Azerbaijan" narrative, which, as you know, basically coincides with almost the entire territory of the Republic of Armenia. They claim it is not a territorial claim, but unfortunately, the impression is entirely different. How can I inspire confidence as a Foreign Minister or my government? Unfortunately, I cannot express confidence because I am unsure about Azerbaijan's peace plans.