Radar Armenia spoke with political scientist Davit Stepanyan about the new developments of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the processes prevailing in our region in this context.
- After the explosion of the Crimean bridge on October 8, today Russia bombarded entire Ukraine. What phase do you think the Russian-Ukrainian war is entering with this?
-I do not think. I would give a different wording: the stakes are getting higher. And it is hazardous because it seems impossible to make a big bet; there is no possibility. By blowing up the Crimean bridge, Ukraine struck a blow at Putin himself. And now the shelling of Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, is the first part of the answer. And I think those stakes will increase.
- Can we say that these recent events delayed negotiations between the parties?
- Yes, there will be no negotiations now because the stakes are getting higher, and there is no basis for talks, at least at this stage. It may seem like a paradox, but Europe and the USA are inclined to negotiate between Ukraine and Russia and are trying to close this issue. There is such a tendency if we consider the statements made from Washington and Brussels. Negotiations will occur sooner or later, but I think it is too early to predict when.
- In your opinion, is the probability of using nuclear weapons increasing? In which case will Russia go that way?
- At first glance, the possibility of using nuclear weapons increases. But I am optimistic about this. I do not think that Putin will use atomic weapons. It is necessary to understand Putin's phobias. He is even afraid of the coronavirus. He lived in a bunker during the pandemic, and I don't think he would take that risk to put his own life first. The life of the rest is not that interesting to him. Putin can use nuclear weapons only in one case When they come after him to take him to the International Court of Justice in The Hague and try him as a war criminal. That is the only option. There must be a change of power in Russia and military intervention by the West, Ukraine, and only then will Putin take that step.
- What consequences can the continuation of this conflict have for Armenia and the region if we consider that the Russian Federation is getting more stuck in this problem?
- Many people in Armenia were happy when Russia was advancing from the beginning. Even now there are people who are happy that Ukraine is moving forward. I do not belong to either the first or the second group. I think it is in our interest to end this conflict as soon as possible. Firstly, for the simple reason that in that case the attention of the international community will be more focused on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. We lack that attention today. Although the processes are going on, the number one interest is Ukraine. The more Russia gets stuck in the war, the more our dangers increase. On the one hand, it is possible that the Russian Federation will finally lose this war and leave this region, and on the other hand, it is possible that Russia will blow up this region and hand it over to the West before leaving. So the dangers are quite a lot, and our number one interest is an early end to the war.
Hayk Magoyan
