Politics

Through its "caviar diplomacy," Azerbaijan has drawn a significant part of the Russian elite to its side and turned it into a servant of its interests.

The interlocutor of Radar Armenia is Artashes Khalatyan, an associate expert of the AIISAand a jurist.

- Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said today at the Cabinet meeting that the solution to curbing Azerbaijani aggression can be the deployment of an international observation mission on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, be it the UN Security Council, the OSCE, or any other international organization. Do you consider the implementation and effectiveness of this possible?

- I find that the Prime Minister's vision regarding the involvement of an international observation mission in de-escalating the situation is realistic and can be helpful at this time. But we must consider that in a broader context, deploying a peacekeeping mission, a particular international armed contingent, on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border can be very time-consuming. Taking into account that today there are pretty deep contradictions between the member states of the UN Security Council. The polarization is quite profound. And we know that the UN Security Council gives international peacekeeping missions a corresponding mandate. Therefore, it is not realistic to expect a quick and comprehensive de-escalation solution at this time. Here it is essential to consider that as long as Armenia is regarded as a CSTO member, we are somewhat unclear to international partners because, being in the CSTO area of ​​responsibility, we try to find alternatives. Still, we do not raise the practicality of staying in the CSTO.

In this regard, we are facing a strange situation when the CSTO is entirely inadequate for the security situation of its allied state and does not take any practical steps. Armenia is bound by the restrictions stipulated by the CSTO treaty; for example, to acquire weapons from non-CSTO member states, the consent of all member states is necessary. And this is the reason for the assertion of the representative of Russia in the UN Security Council that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is a matter under the responsibility of the CSTO and the CSTO- is ready to fulfill contractual obligations. And this is where Armenia should raise its voice that the CSTO cannot neutralize security threats in any way. Therefore, we must leave the CSTO, and only after that will we be able to advance the initiatives that serve our security needs effectively.

- The Armenian Prime Minister also said that we paid 100 million dollars for weapons to the allied countries, but Baku does not allow them to supply them. How will you interpret it?

- The Prime Minister's statement was unprecedented. We all understand that the international political conjuncture in the Transcaucasian region has changed significantly. And yes, our traditional ally Russia is very constrained in its actions in moderating the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, as Russia has burdened itself with multi-layered commitments to Azerbaijan, including the signing of an alliance declaration between Russia and Azerbaijan earlier this year. And recently, the speaker of the Russian State Duma, Volodin, held talks with his Azerbaijani counterpart in Baku regarding its legal confirmation. It seems that an agreement was reached that the provisions of the alliance agreement should be strengthened and implemented with several legislative initiatives. According to that agreement, the Russian Federation undertakes not to perform any economic, political, or military action that would contradict the interests of Azerbaijan. And it is evident that in this case, the Russian Federation de facto undertakes not to support Armenia. In acquiring weapons and ammunition, it is obvious that Russia can take it upon itself, at least by verbal agreement, not to provide military support to Armenia.

- Why did problems arise in the matter of arms supply, and how is it that Azerbaijan can prevent it?

- As for the already concluded supply contracts, for which Armenia has paid but does not receive the corresponding weapons, this is an unprecedented reality. The words of the Prime Minister refer to Russia because Russia has been our main, at least 80%, supplier of weapons and ammunition in these years. In this regard, there are severe problems in Armenian-Russian relations, leading to the non-fulfillment of financial obligations. This is a deep crisis in Armenian-Russian relations. And in this sense, it is evident that Azerbaijan, either through its "caviar diplomacy," has drawn a significant part of the Russian elite to its side and turned it into a servant of its interests, or with international legal and political instruments, for example, thanks to the Russian-Azerbaijani agreements, Russia was obliged to show such an indifferent attitude towards Armenia. And thirdly, Azerbaijan also has Turkey's accurate and comprehensive support. And Turkey today is Russia's only window to Europe and can exploit Russia's dependence on it skillfully. And it is not excluded that by lobbying Azerbaijan again, it will set new conditions in front of the Russian Federation. It is a fact that Armenian-Russian relations are at a strategic impasse, and until their objective reformatting, we must think about serving our daily security needs.

- In general, is there a precedent for deploying an international observation mission worldwide, and what was the impact?

- The international observation mission can have a short-term impact, mainly including a civilian component. Civil officials and representatives of various states monitor the border, albeit permanently. However, the international experience shows that the international peacekeeping forces, which include in the conflict the conditions that are not interested in the outcome of the match and are mandated by the UN Security Council to contribute to international peace and security, which act as the structure itself, or also under the auspices of the OSCE. And it is such peacekeeping forces that can establish long-term peace in the region. The deployment of a peacekeeping mission requires the consent of five UN members, and we know that Russia will never agree to this, at least in the short term. Because the deployment of a limited armed contingent of even one NATO member state in Armenia will seriously shake Russia's position in Armenia, in this regard, we should make our emphasis and steps in the following directions: permanent deployment of international civil observation groups on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, withdraw from the CSTO and de-diversify our security and military defense policy, focusing on the acquisition of modern weapons and ammunition from non-CSTO member states, and provide weapons - to the local production of ammunition, to try to close the gaps in the military arsenal with local production.

Hayk Magoyan