Radar Armenia spoke with Hovsep Khurshudyan, head of the "Free Citizen" NGO, about regional issues.
- With the mediation of the United States, the meeting of the Secretary of the Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan and the assistant of the President of the Republic of Armenia Hikmet Hajiyev took place in the White House. Previously, they met through the mediation of the EU; now, the USA has assumed that role. What does this mean? Is the USA trying to take over the Armenian-Azerbaijani reconciliation process?
- It is evident that Charles Michel's mediation could not ensure Azerbaijan's constructive behavior and abstinence from the use of military force. It is related to the fact that the EU acts more through soft power, which in this case was not enough for Aliyev, who was still under euphoria. Now the USA, whose direct influence on both Azerbaijan and its patrons, Russia and Turkey, is more significant, and, finally, it is the highest power on earth, directly takes over the process of peace settlement in the region instead of being mediated, as was the case with EU mediation.
- In your opinion, has Russia washed its hands of this process or not?
- The ambitions of that empire rolling into the abyss in the South Caucasus can be characterized by a Russian proverb, "Not too fat - to be alive" Putin cannot do anything in the South Caucasus even if he wants to, at most - minor damage, for example, try to destabilize the situation in Armenia through the crazy part of his agency network, which is still loyal to him, or apply some economic sanctions against RA, if we leave the treacherous club CSTO and the 1997 base agreement.
- US Senator, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Bob Menendez presented a bipartisan resolution to the US Senate. The resolution condemns the illegal and unjustified attack of the Azerbaijani forces on Armenia and calls on the United States to immediately stop security assistance to Azerbaijan. Do you think it is realistic that the senate will accept the resolution? What effect can such actions have on stabilizing the situation?
- The Menendez formula is just one of the pressure tools. The other is Jackie Speier's bill. All this can be followed by other levers, up to recognizing Azerbaijan as an aggressor and occupier. This is the background that the US is creating to sober up Aliyev. Aliyev understands the language of pressure and threats best. Charles Michel was too polite and soft towards Aliyev. Resolutions can be adopted if Aliyev does not understand the complexity of his situation and the gravity of the consequences of his adventurous expansionism. The next step will be the executive decisions of the US State Department and the White House against Aliyev and Azerbaijan based on those resolutions. Everything will be done in turn, in order. But I don't think that euphoria has completely obscured Aliyev's self-defense instinct. I think they will also put a demand against him to replace Russian troops with international ones in Artsakh, if not right now, then very shortly, parallel to the defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine, and he will agree to that. It's a matter of time.
Hayk Magowan