The region is in flux, and significant geopolitical powers have been drawn into it
Radar Armenia's interlocutor is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scientist and analyst.
- The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, and the President of the Russian Federation has announced a new military mobilization. How would you assess what happened and, in this context, Russia's position in the conflict? Does this mean that Russia has problems on the battlefield?
- I think the military mobilization announced by the President of the Russian Federation is closely connected with the decision to hold a referendum in 4 regions. Concrete actions are expected here because dates have been determined for the holding of the referendum. Before these decisions, there was information about the Ukrainian advance and the Russian retreat. The policy of sanctions and isolation applied by the international family, the military aid and financial support is given to Ukraine, and the recent hostilities events led Moscow to the decision to hold military mobilization and accompanying referendums. They go bilaterally on the path of raising the ceiling of escalation.
- I would like to ask you to tell me what impact the current events will have on the region
- The region is in full swing, and significant geopolitical forces have been involved. By and large, Washington-Moscow is a battleground of the poles. More precisely, trends of American penetration in Russian domains. Hot spots are Ukraine and the South Caucasus. The satellite network setting has upset the balance. On the one hand, there is Washington, which managed to attract the international community, and on the other hand, Moscow, to which Ankara provides ambiguous support. In the South Caucasus and, especially, the Artsakh-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Azerbaijan conflicts, Russian-Turkish coordination is much more visible than in the Ukraine war. There, on the one hand, Ankara condemns the Russian invasion and defends the territorial integrity of Ukraine; on the other hand, it does not join the specified sanctions of the international family. Between them, he takes the role of a mediator in terms of establishing a ceasefire or solving the global grain crisis. A war has been declared to reshape the Russian spheres of influence.
- Although the USA, France, and several other countries directly accused Azerbaijan of invading the sovereign territory of Armenia, Aliyev continues to speak in the language of threats. Do you think that Aliyev is not worried about assessing the international community? Does the situation of Russia on the battlefield also play a role in Azerbaijan's rhetoric?
- It is necessary to classify the address announcements. For apparent reasons, the most direct and accusatory were the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cyprus's statements.
The same was not the case with the other natural ally, Greece, where there was no address due to transactional reasons with Azerbaijani energy.
There was an address in the statement of the Foreign Ministry of Lebanon which talked about the killings and demolitions done on the Armenian territories, making the face of the aggressor clear.
The statements of France and the USA are similar. India and Finland also came forward with similar content.
When studying the statements, one should notice the influential states whose interests stem from the non-fulfillment of the tasks of the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance and whose positions can pressure Baku with demands to return the Azerbaijani armed forces to their starting points.
The most concrete interpretation of these statements will be the withdrawal of the Azerbaijani armed forces from the territories of Armenia. For that, it is necessary to intensify Armenian diplomacy and lobbying activities.
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