Radar Armenia's interlocutor is political scientist Davit Stepanyan.
- On September 21, a partial mobilization began in the Russian Federation. What does this mean, is Russia's situation on the battlefield dire?
- Yes, the ongoing mobilization means that Russia's situation on the battlefield is not very good. Russia failed to achieve its goals, neither in the first phase, when it was going to capture Kyiv nor in the second when it was going to catch the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia is trying to raise the stakes, and by conscripting 300,000 people, it is trying to advance in Ukraine with greater forces. I think with the primary goal of reaching a temporary ceasefire and standing in the positions that can be taken until then.
- The President of Turkey stated that the longer the war continues, the more difficult it is to find a solution. Do you see a possibility of settling the situation diplomatically?
- At least at the moment, there is no diplomatic way because both sides are doing everything to solve the issue by war. I do not think that this war will have a good end, first of all, for Russia. As a result of all this, the thing may come to the point where Russia begins to collapse, taking into account that people in Russian regions do not want to go to war on the territory of another country. And there can be different moods. By and large, Russia is facing the danger of disintegration today. I don't think they will be able to take all the territories occupied in 2014 and Crimea under these conditions. So, in the most optimistic scenario, the war will stop again in the Ukrainian territory, and a temporary ceasefire will be signed again, which can last even years.
- How will what happens to affect our regional processes?
- I do not expect anything good for our region from the Ukrainian conflict. We have been saying since February 24 that we will face serious dangers. And I do not associate those dangers with the weakening of Russia. I think it's a misconception that Russia has weakened in Ukraine, which is why Azerbaijan behaves recklessly. Here the problem is in a completely different field. Russia can move in many different scenarios in the South Caucasus. We should not rule out that as a result of Ukraine, he may even leave the South Caucasus and instigate a big war here so that, before leaving the region, he "blows up" it and "hands it over" to the USA in that state. So, there are many dangers, but I hope that the war in Ukraine will end as soon as possible because it is in our interest, as well as in everyone's interest. And we will be able to avoid such destructive scenarios.
Hayk Magoyan
