The risk of escalation must be reduced through external pressure
Radar Armenia spoke with political scientist Grigoryan Tigran about the continuous disinformation spread by Azerbaijan, the violation of the ceasefire in Artsakh at night, and the possibility of a new escalation in the region.
- The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan has been spreading misinformation for a long time that the Armenian side is violating the ceasefire regime and shelling Azerbaijani positions. There are opinions that, in this way, the enemy is preparing the ground for a new military escalation. Why do you think this is done?
- Yes, I also think that the probability of military escalation at this stage is relatively high. Azerbaijan, by and large, repeats all the actions taken before the August escalation. And in that regard, the Armenian Armed Forces and the Artsakh Armed Forces should be ready for similar developments.
- At night, the Azerbaijani side opened fire in the direction of Karmir market and Taghavard villages of the Martuni region of Artsakh. Do you consider this practice in the context of constantly spreading misinformation?
- It is difficult to predict the direction. Of course, suppose we follow the reports of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, where it is constantly mentioned that their position s in the Lachin and Kelbajar regions is being shelled. In that case, we can expect an escalation, for example, in Gegharkunik, but generally, it isn't easy to predict. There may be an escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh as well.
- What should Armenian diplomacy do to avoid possible escalation?
- We should be in very active contact with all international partners, show this behavior of Azerbaijan, which does not even try to hide its actions, and try to reduce the risk of escalation, at least through external diplomatic pressure.
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