Politics

Can Armenia benefit from the Azerbaijan-US-France disagreement?

Recent events show a contradiction between Azerbaijan and two OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries (USA, France). This is evidenced by the fact that the ambassadors of the United States and France in Azerbaijan were not present at the conference held in Shushi, and then the harsh reaction of Azerbaijan and the response of the US Embassy in Azerbaijan.

Radar Armenia tried to understand what possible benefits the Armenian side could expect from the Azerbaijan-USA-France conflict.

Davit Sanasaryan, head of the "Independent Armenia" party, said in a conversation with Radar Armenia: that in this context, it should first be noted that Russia, an "ally" of the OSCE Minsk Group of Armenia, remains within the framework of its alliance relations with Azerbaijan and participates in important events for Azerbaijan.

Sanasaryan considers the United States and France as potential allies for Armenia and notes that by not going to Shush, they once again send a message that, to put it mildly, they disagree with the status quo formed by the Russian-Azerbaijani-Turkish triangle. "Armenia should draw the right conclusions soon, analyzing the events of the last period, and get out of this trap with more courageous steps."

According to political scientist Tigran Grigoryan, by appointing Philip Ricker as the co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Washington dealt a severe blow to the post-war Azerbaijani narrative that the conflict was over, and there was no point in discussing any issues related to the Nagorno Karabakh problem. "Philip Ricker is an influential diplomat with serious experience, and he is the highest-ranking American diplomat appointed to that position in the last 15 years," said Grigoryan. According to the political scientist, the Armenian side should use this appointment and the public debate between Baku and the two co-chairing countries, the USA and France, to advance Armenian agendas. According to him, it is another question whether Yerevan intends to move in that direction.

Grigoryan noticed that the positions of official Yerevan have been cautious lately, and it seems that everything is being done not to provoke Azerbaijan. According to him, Russia is also not interested in the existence of the Minsk Group format. He referred to the statement made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Baku.

According to Grigoryan, the positions of Baku and Moscow are identical. "Armenia, in the case of proper work, can also "sell" this circumstance in the West because the closest cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia is going on at this stage. And it should be taken into account that Azerbaijan seems to be moving in the direction of signing an agreement with the EAEU or becoming a member, then in the diplomatic field one can try to win points as a result of all this."

Note that the Pashinyan-Aliev meeting will take place on August 31 in Brussels.

Hayk Magoyan