The interlocutor of Radar Armenia is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international expert, analyst, and editor-in-chief of "Azdak" newspaper.
On August 25, residents of Aghavnoi and Berdzor must leave their homes. What security risks can there be when these settlements are no longer under the control of Azerbaijan?
- The haste to implement point 6 of the November 9 ceasefire announcement comes from Baku and Turkey. Clause 6 talks about opening an alternative way with a tripartite agreement. There is also a term that has not yet expired. The Turkish-Azerbaijani haste and repression characterized by military attacks speak of creating an alternative to Lachin a day ago. It is in their interests.
In addition to the controllability of energy points reaching Artsakh, there is the task of bypassing Shushi and the tendency to close the corridor. If we look carefully at the wording in point 6, it talks about replacing the Lachine Corridor with a new route. A new passage is not mentioned. I think the game is that Baku is now working on a road-road-for-road formula instead of a corridor-for-corridor, especially when it became clear that Tehran will not tolerate any change in its border status with RA. At the same time, they will propose the opening of the route connecting Nakhichevan to Azerbaijan, which is the road-to-road formula.
- The latest escalation in Artsakh showed Azerbaijan contradicts its statements regarding signing a peace treaty. Do you consider the signing of a peace agreement realistic in the circumstances? If not, then what developments to expect?
- Even before the military operations, Baku did not respect the ceasefire agreement of November 9. Clause 8 of the contract talks about solving humanitarian problems. So far, the prisoners of war and detained persons have not returned, the remains of the victims have not been repatriated, and the return of refugees and injured persons has not been organized. Baku wants to implement the 2020 points of agreement of November 9 selectively. The strategy of the Armenian side should be to drag out the process because Baku does not respect the deal. Besides, the peace agreement is still not visible for geopolitical reasons. More than once, Tehran has expressed its disapproval of other players in the region, but the European Union and Washington, in particular, have become more active, saying in a simple way that the settlement has not been reached, the status issue has not been resolved. This is a message to Moscow and Ankara that they cannot resolve the Artsakh conflict by an agreement between them only. Washington officially announced that it is technically ready to support. In the current conditions, mainly because of the war in Ukraine, it is difficult to imagine such a format where the USA and Russia will cooperate to settle the conflict. There is no geopolitical consensus for a resolution.
The tragic explosion of the "Surmalu" shopping center in Armenia linked some circles with foreign forces. Are they realistic claims?
- The tragedy of "Surmalu" should not be politicized. Even though through a political lens, there are objective observations. It was common to remember that on the eve of the Surmalu blast, there were successive false bomb alarms at the airport, subway, or public places, to create an atmosphere of instability. Official statements exclude the hypothesis of terrorism. In parallel, the US Embassy warned its citizens against visiting or traveling in public places. On the other hand, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation did not leave unnoticed the tendency to blame the accident on the Russian centers on public and social media platforms. The Russian supervisor sent a note of protest to Armenia, hoping to counter this phenomenon.
Of course, the phenomenon of condolence letters sent by other states has political significance. The state level of their representatives will be subjected to a political reading, considering the stories of the president, prime minister, or foreign minister. The condolences of the Turkish representative to the Republic of Armenia-Turkey dialogue process do not go unnoticed.
Hayk Magoyan
