Eldar Mammadov, a non-resident fellow at the Queen's Institute and a foreign policy expert based in Brussels, published an article in Responsible Statecraft titled "Why Azerbaijan, which has friendly relations with Israel, seeks normalization of relations."

Radar Armenia presents a translation of the article, which was published on March 24.

"President Donald Trump is sending mixed signals on Iran, on the one hand reviving the policy of "maximum pressure" and threatening military action, on the other hand demonstrating a willingness to negotiate. In these conditions, "anti-diplomatic" forces are working overtime to find new ways that will keep the United States and Iran in a state of permanent hostility.

In recent weeks, an active campaign has been underway in the United States and Israel to include Iran's northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, in the "Abraham Accords." These agreements were signed in 2020 between Israel and several Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco.

One of Israel's leading think tanks, the Begin-Sadat Center, argues that Baku would be a perfect addition to this group. Several influential rabbis have also sent a letter to Trump promoting Baku's inclusion. The Wall Street Journal and Forbes have also supported this idea in their editorials.

At first glance, this activity may seem strange since Azerbaijan is already a close ally of Israel, and their relations are much warmer than those of the Arab countries that signed the "Abraham Accords."

In the early 1990s, when Israel considered Iran its main threat, it began to establish ties with Azerbaijan as a counterweight.

Baku has benefited significantly from these relations: Israel played a key role in Azerbaijan's victory in the 2020 and 2023 wars over Nagorno-Karabakh against Armenia.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Israel accounted for up to 70% of Azerbaijan's military imports. Azerbaijan is Israel's leading oil supplier, providing up to 40% of its oil imports. Baku did not stop oil supplies even after October 7, 2023, during the Israeli war in Gaza. The deepening of relations is also evidenced by the Azerbaijani state-owned company SOCAR, recently acquiring a 10% stake in Israel's Tamar offshore gas field.

Thus, the benefits of Azerbaijan joining the "Abraham Accords" are not self-evident. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel seeks to "create a solid foundation for trilateral cooperation with the United States and Azerbaijan." The Wall Street Journal reported in 2024, In a March 14 article, Seth Cropsey and Joseph Epstein noted that such an alliance's goal is to significantly increase pressure on Iran's northern border.

However, this plan has an obstacle: Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which was passed in the early 1990s in the context of the first Karabakh war through the efforts of an influential American-Armenian lobby. It prohibits US military aid and arms sales to Azerbaijan. However, since 2001, after the start of the "Global War on Terror," US presidents have temporarily lifted this restriction, considering Azerbaijan a helpful partner. In this context, Baku has positioned itself as an essential ally against Tehran.

Azerbaijan's Israeli and American supporters argue that the announcements of an upcoming "peace treaty" between Armenia and Azerbaijan are a good opportunity to abolish Article 907 altogether. However, the treaty has not yet been signed, as Baku constantly changes the terms. Moreover, Baku is actively promoting the idea that Armenia is preparing for a revanchist war to recover its losses. However, these claims contradict the balance of power in the region, which clearly shows that Yerevan cannot militarily challenge Azerbaijan, which enjoys the support of Turkey and Israel. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said he is ready to sign the peace treaty immediately.

Baku's delays can be explained by a desire to extract additional territorial concessions from Yerevan and blame Armenia for the failure of peace talks. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has long insisted that Armenia's Syunik province (called "Zangezur" in Baku) is Azerbaijani "historical land" and should be "returned." This territory not only separates the mainland of Azerbaijan from Nakhichevan but also borders Iran. Baku has long demanded the creation of a "Zangezur corridor" to provide a direct connection with Turkey. Although this demand is not included in the draft peace treaty, it remains on Baku's agenda, leaving Armenia vulnerable to new military pressure.

Iran, for its part, has declared that any change in borders in the South Caucasus is unacceptable. Tehran fears that Armenia's loss of its border with Iran would isolate it from the region and allow Turkey and Israel to strengthen their positions in Iran's "backyard." To prevent this, Tehran has held large-scale military exercises on the border with Azerbaijan and warned that it would intervene militarily if necessary. So far, this has deterred Baku's ambitions.

The effort to add Azerbaijan to the "Abraham Accords" appears to be aimed at deepening Baku's ties with Washington, encouraging Azerbaijan to take a more assertive stance toward Iran. The move also intends to mobilize Iran's Azerbaijani community (up to 20% of the population). Hardline US neoconservatives and organizations such as the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Hudson Institute, as well as their Israeli counterparts, have long argued that Iran's ethnic and religious minorities, including Azerbaijanis, should be encouraged to rebel against the regime. Against.

Israel and Azerbaijan would undoubtedly welcome the "trilateral cooperation" with the United States proposed by Netanyahu's office. However, it is difficult to see how this would serve long-term US interests, particularly avoiding new military commitments in the Middle East that could drag Washington into alliances and lead to new wars, either directly or indirectly.

Moreover, there is no compelling reason for the US to reward Azerbaijan. This distant, corrupt, and authoritarian regime is guilty of the ethnic cleansing of 120,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh and human rights abuses of its people. Azerbaijan's strategic importance to the US is negligible and primarily based on an exaggerated "Iranian threat."

A better course would be for Washington to peacefully resolve its differences with Tehran, as Trump claims he wants. That would, among other benefits, eliminate unnecessary ties with yet another with an irreconcilable partner."

PS: The Abraham Accords Declaration was signed on September 15, 2020, in Washington, D.C., by US President Donald Trump. It marked the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab countries, becoming a historic step in the cause of Middle East peace.

Prepared by: Arman Galoyan