On March 12, an adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates delivered a letter from US President Donald Trump to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the Iranian foreign minister in Tehran.

Earlier, on March 7, in an interview with Fox Business Network, US President Donald Trump said that in his letter to Iran's spiritual leader, he expressed hope that Iran would be ready to negotiate over its nuclear program because "if we have to solve the issue militarily, that would be terrible." Earlier, Trump had opened the brackets further in an interview with Fox News, noting that there are two approaches to dealing with Iran: military and making a deal, but that an agreement is preferable for him, "which would be as good as a military victory," adding, however, that time for that will soon pass.

Iran-US Diplomatic Skirmish

Iran's Supreme Leader responded to President Trump's statements by saying that the US's goal is not to resolve issues through negotiations but to impose its demands, which Iran will not agree to under any circumstances.

Tehran's brutal response is due to the "maximum pressure" policy against Iran relaunched by the new US administration. Recent statements from the White House and Trump himself have made it somewhat clear that its meaning is a sharp tightening of sanctions against Iran, especially on oil exports, as a means of forcing negotiations over its nuclear program and imposing solutions it wants during it. Moreover, if in the first period of his administration, the current US President Donald Trump's policy was aimed only against Iran's nuclear program, now it is directly stated that the target is also Iran's production of ballistic missiles as a destabilizing factor in the Middle East region.

It is not yet clear what Khamenei has officially replied to Trump. However, it is evident that the US, in parallel with the shuttle negotiations it has undertaken to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, is intensifying the Iranian agenda. Moreover, the formula of "forcing concessions through pressure," which Donald Trump promised to apply to Russia in the Ukrainian issue, is being used against Iran. The US does not need to be coy on this issue because, unlike Russia, Iran does not have nuclear weapons, and Trump can afford to act from a "macho" position.

The fact that Iran not only does not bow to pressure from the White House but refuses to sit down for negotiations according to the rules dictated by the US but also threatens to respond more painfully in the event of a military escalation against it indicates that a new conflict with dire consequences is seriously heating up in the Middle East region. Many players may be involved in this, directly or indirectly. In particular, Israel has not hidden that it is in favor of launching military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, launching military operations against a country it considers its arch-enemy. There is no doubt that if the situation escalates to such an extent, Israel may resort to preemptive actions. Moreover, Israel is taking very intensive steps to tighten the noose around Iran and use Azerbaijan for these purposes. Last Friday, March 14, it became known that Trump's special envoy Witkoff, who had left for Moscow within the framework of the Ukrainian settlement, immediately left Moscow for Baku. According to Russian and Azerbaijani sources, this visit takes place within the framework of the Israeli concept of creating an Israel-Azerbaijan-US axis. Turkey and Azerbaijan are equally interested in Iran's regional weakness.

The Specter of a New Anti-American Front

On the other hand, Tehran is also taking diplomatic steps. In January, Iran signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Russia. In this agreement, the parties committed themselves not to support the aggressor in any way if one side is subjected to aggression by the other, but most importantly, to jointly counter the "unilateral use of coercive measures" by a third party against them.

In addition, Iran is striving to form a new political pole, represented by Russia and China, to counterbalance the so-called US-Israeli pole. In particular, last Tuesday, Iran, China, and Russia began joint naval exercises in the strategic area for Tehran, near the Strait of Hormuz, called "Maritime Security Zone 2025." Although this is the fifth such joint exercise, it is no coincidence that it is being held now.

In addition, on March 14, the foreign ministers of China, Russia, and Iran met in Beijing to discuss the situation surrounding Iran's nuclear program. Although details are still unknown, according to Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu, the parties declared the need to lift all illegal sanctions against Iran due to the meeting. This differs from the trilateral rejection of the "maximum pressure" policy against Tehran, which cannot be considered a demonstration. Earlier, official Beijing stated that China supports the protection of the international regime of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the promotion of peace and stability in the Middle East but is in favor of resolving the issue through political and diplomatic means.

Both Beijing and Moscow advocate the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the format of the nuclear deal on Iran's nuclear program that was interrupted during Trump's first term, on which an agreement was reached between Iran and six countries: Russia, the United States, China, Great Britain, France and Germany. Trump later withdrew the United States from it.

Risks for the region and Armenia

The Iranian crisis may become a new hotbed of global conflict despite a certain rapprochement between Russia and the United States on the Ukrainian issue. With its noticeable activation on the Iranian issue, Beijing is sending clear messages that Iran may be a "red line" for it in terms of Trump's anti-Chinese plans. Against this backdrop, the passions raging around Iran cannot but seriously worry the countries of the region, which may be perceived by major players as a springboard, as, naturally, Azerbaijan from the point of view of Israel.

Any process of destabilization around Iran directly contradicts Armenia's vital interests and poses significant risks to its security. This may also be the reason for Yerevan's recent steps in completing the peace process with Azerbaijan. Considering the further deepening of the Iranian conflict, Yerevan is likely to close the possible risky loopholes that may arise under the guise of actions against Iran, mainly to give Azerbaijan an opportunity to encroach on Armenia's territorial integrity.

It is clear that signing a peace agreement cannot guarantee full avoidance of this. However, it may, in general, delegitimize any possible military action by Baku, taking advantage of the situation from the perspective of the international community.

Gor Abrahamyan