Both sides sounded optimistic after the first talks between the US and Russian delegations in Saudi Arabia on February 18. However, what is happening in the background of this process has raised more questions and provoked global turmoil, with unpredictable consequences for the future of the war, Ukraine, and international security in general.
First, the primary beneficiary, Ukraine, was not invited to the meeting. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had earlier stated that Kyiv would not accept the outcome of any negotiations without its participation, postponed his planned visit to Saudi Arabia. This was a natural protest against the "game" that had begun without their participation in deciding Ukraine's fate.
Kyiv's absence from the talks was a tactical success for Russia. From the beginning, Moscow insisted on using a bilateral format with Washington, thereby turning Ukraine from a subject of the conflict into an object. Thus, with the light hand of the United States, Russia also "put out of the game" the second primary beneficiary, a united Europe, which perceives the Ukrainian war as a means of preventing a Russian threat to its security.
When "business" becomes politics
In addition, Moscow made the Ukrainian problem one of the urgent issues on the Russian-American agenda, proposing to solve it on a "package" basis. On the very day of the negotiations, the press secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov announced that "a comprehensive long-term settlement is impossible without a comprehensive discussion of the security issues of the continent." Thus, the Kremlin created a roadmap for extracting more concessions in the Ukrainian crisis through "deals," including turning Europe into a geopolitical "island." That is why Moscow has decided to play on Trump's ambitions to claim the laurels of the "great peacemaker" and on his political team's general understanding of politics as a business.
It is no coincidence that the Russian delegation to Saudi Arabia, in addition to Foreign Minister S. Lavrov and Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Y. Ushakov, also included Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian State Investment Fund, and, as The Telegraph noted, Dmitry Rybolovlev, a Russian billionaire living in Monaco and having experience in dealings with Donald Trump—people who know well how American business thinking works. Moreover, before the start of the negotiations themselves, Dmitriev had a separate meeting with members of the US delegation. After the general talks, he announced that the Russian and American delegations discussed Ukraine and cooperation projects in the Arctic. According to experts, the North Pole issue could have become a subject of discussion in the context of realizing the vast reserves of minerals opening up in this region due to the melting of the Arctic ice and the possibility of using the Arctic as the shortest logistical corridor. Later, the Russian president added that the economy, energy, and space were also discussed in Riyadh. Let's consider how persistently Trump forced Ukraine to pay for the military assistance provided with its valuable minerals. It becomes clear what a cunning step Moscow is taking by presenting such proposals.
Trump's harsh curtseys under the Russian "chastushka."
This Russian "gambit" also, in fact, worked. First, Donald Trump then began to intimidate Ukraine, saying that Zelensky should hurry up in reaching an agreement with Russia if he wants to have a country at all and that Russia has a necessary trump card in the negotiations. Of course, he did not say what trump card he was talking about. Then Trump targeted Zelensky in general, calling him a "modestly successful comedian," a "leader with low ratings and refusing to hold elections," accusing the latter of disappearing part of the approximately $350 billion provided as aid, that is, of corruption, and indirectly accusing him of starting the war and not stopping it.
In other words, by completely repeating Russian narratives, Trump has turned the cause-and-effect system of the Ukrainian war upside down, distorted it, and indirectly legitimized Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the annexation of Ukrainian territories. Moreover, after the talks in Riyadh, US National Security Advisor Michael Walz stated that post-war peace guarantees for Ukraine should be "European-led," effectively implying that Washington would abandon its role as Ukraine's European security umbrella and that the Old Continent would have to "take care of itself."
The Ghost of a New Security System
It is noteworthy that such groundbreaking statements from Washington come at a time when Moscow, even after the Riyadh meeting, continues to insist on Ukraine's membership in NATO, the exclusion of any foreign military contingent in Ukraine, and the withdrawal of its occupied territories not to give up and to lift the sanctions against Russia.
This arrangement of things allows us to conclude that the US has changed its declared concept of resolving the Ukrainian war and has put into operation the "machine" of forcing concessions on the victim, Ukraine, instead of Russia, within "100 days.". Regardless of how further negotiations will go, Russia has already recorded a vital victory milestone. First, it legitimized its ongoing aggression with the light hand of Washington. Second, it has achieved at least a split in the Ukrainian rear. Third, it has opened a new agenda for redirecting spheres of influence with the US, at least on the Eurasian continent. Fourth, it has shown the vulnerability of the US as a superpower, thereby forming a perception in the world that it should not rely on it as a reliable partner. Fifth, it has created an opportunity to show that democracy and human rights are not value categories for the United States, even with its advocates.
This abrupt turn of events by the new US administration has begun to be assessed in Europe as a signal for a change in the standard security doctrine. Collective Europe, represented by French President Emmanuel Macron, has already announced after an urgent meeting of the leaders of leading European countries convened in Paris that they are assuming the role of the main guarantor of Ukraine's security, will continue to support Kyiv and will sharply increase their security and military spending. In other words, Europe is moving towards creating a security system completely independent of the shackles of the United States. The sharp militarization of Europe and the new US policy may stimulate a global arms race.
It remains to be seen what outcome the Russian-American "tango" that has begun will have.
Gor Abrahamyan
