Yesterday marked the first anniversary of the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Assad fled Syria to Russia a year ago, when rebels under the command of the new Syrian President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, captured Damascus.
Celebrations were held in Syria yesterday.
Radar Armenia spoke to international affairs expert Shahan Gandaharian on this occasion.
- It's been one year since the fall of Assad's regime. Looking back, what were the main reasons for the fall of his regime?
- Of course, there were many internal reasons—economic, social, and Alawite dominance. Pressures increased especially when the US tightened the noose of sanctions. The real reason, however, which accelerated the fall of the regime, was the neutralization of its two main pillars: Iran and Russia.
- Could he have retained power?
- The Assad regime was based mainly on two pillars: Moscow and Tehran. When these pillars were violated, the regime collapsed. Assad's power was dependent on these two states.
- How do you assess the past year in Syria?
- Uncertain, chaotic actions that contain prerequisites for tribal cleansing on Syrian territories and trends in changing demographic patterns. All this suggests that Syria is still far from stability. Events should be viewed primarily in relation to Israel. Israeli troops have invaded Syrian territory. A process to establish ties between Damascus and Tel Aviv is proposed as follows.
- What prospects do you see for that country?
- The situation is still bleak. The US is redrawing the map of the region. The role of Iran is being redefined. Russia does not have the same influence on Syria. There are American and Turkish troops, a Russian base, and Kurdish armed forces in Syria. This picture underscores the imperative of new agreements grounded in interests. Until then, upheavals are expected.
Arman Galoyan
