Interview
Washington dictates the rules of military negotiations in Ukraine. Gandaharian
Radar Armenia's interlocutor is international affairs expert Shahan Gandaharian.
- The issue of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war with US mediation has once again become a priority topic on the international political agenda. Zelensky was in Istanbul when the Trump version of the peace agreement was published. What did this mean? How would you interpret it?
- The fact that it came to the forefront of the agenda is due to the driving factor of the US. Washington wants to reiterate that it will remain the primary guarantor. Agreeable points are being formed, re-edited, and referred to the parties. This is not a process that is nearing completion. It is more like a clarification of the rules of the game under US auspices.
- To what extent are these points acceptable to the parties?
- The points include territorial issues, security guarantees, and the phased lifting of economic sanctions. The priorities of each party for each point are, naturally, different. Interdependence and package-likeness are imperative; otherwise, there will be no agreement. Implementing all this immediately isn't easy, and I do not think the parties will reach an agreement quickly. Especially being phased and not rushing is also the American tactic in all this.
- Zelensky said that there is no need to rush into making sharp statements.
- For Zelensky, on the one hand, the long-term nature of the situation raises a wave of internal Ukrainian discontent, and on the other hand, ending from the position of the loser will significantly damage his reputation. He is trying to align his positions completely with American rules. He is in a precarious position.
- Is there a chance of reaching an agreement, or will the parties talk again and say goodbye under some pretext?
- They will continue to talk with interruptions and specific flare-ups. The end of the war largely depends on the United States.
- Are these solutions acceptable to other international players?
- The economic burden is a pressure for European countries. Geographically, security issues are of concern to European countries bordering Russia first and foremost. China and Turkey are trying to assume the role of mediator. The central controller in all these processes remains the United States.
- Is the end of the war near or not yet?
- The new status quo is closer to a negotiation-war. This is a pre-negotiation situation. At best, it is a preparation for a temporary ceasefire.
Arman Galoyan
