Interview

The transition from initials to signature does not depend on Baku. Gandaharian

The transition from initials to signature does not depend on Baku. Gandaharian

Radar Armenia's interlocutor is international affairs expert Shahan Gandaharian.

- There have been drone incursions into the airspace of several European countries. Denmark appears to be concerned about this issue, and its prime minister noted that, although there is no evidence that Russia was involved, Russia remains a threat to Europe. How would you comment on what is happening?

- Air raids will continue in different directions. In this case, the issue will be fully used to raise the alarm about the Russian threat, even though the point of departure of the drones has not been documented. This phenomenon will serve to consolidate NATO forces; moreover, in terms of new troop deployments, it will neutralize the threat.

- There is talk of a response, a counterattack by NATO. Is a serious escalation possible?

- The US will support the NATO buildup, but on the other hand, it will not break the bridges that have been established for dialogue with Moscow. The US role in maintaining control of the situation is clear, and it will continue.

- The US president has stated that Turkey is ready to stop importing Russian oil. However, Trump has avoided answering clearly whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agrees with this. Will Turkey take steps against Russia?

- Turkey, to a certain extent, is energy dependent on Russia. Moscow, under sanctions, needs Turkey to export energy. This key point explains the Ankara-Moscow "cooperation" despite other reasons for the conflict of strategic interests. The US specifies the extent of cooperation between Turkey and Russia. In this regard, Ankara is not allowed to cross the borders defined by the US.

- I would like to ask you to assess the current situation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the prospects for the negotiation process. Despite public statements, negotiations are actively underway.

- The negotiation process is open, although the issue is at a deadlock. The primary objective of this war is to achieve longevity. To keep Russia involved, deploy NATO in the border regions, and negotiate again. This path will continue. Peace is not yet in sight.

- The President of Azerbaijan also spoke at the UN General Assembly session in the United States, speaking about the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement. In the end, will Azerbaijan sign the contract without fulfilling the requirement to change the RA constitution, or will it maintain the requirement?

- The US is the one that determines the date of the signing. If the implementation of TRIPP is an immediate urgency for the US, then the pressures will intensify, and Baku's preconditions will not matter. However, the US is more interested in establishing peace at the moment than in opening communication channels; instead, it is focused on transforming Russia's role in the region. The rest are derivative issues and hold secondary importance from a geopolitical perspective.

- Aliyev noted that one of the essential results of the Washington summit is the TRIPP program, which will ensure unhindered passage through the "Zangezur corridor" and strengthen regional ties. Is the implementation of this program visible, and in what timeframe?

- This question is closely related to the previous one. The acceleration, suspension, or slowdown of processes depends on the urgency of the ongoing US penetration task in the region or the intensification of steps taken to remove the Russian factor. The transition from the initial signing of the peace treaty to its formal signature is contingent upon the consequences of these clashes.

Arman Galoyan

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