“There are indeed problems in relations between Moscow and Baku, but I believe that the fundamental relations between Russia and Azerbaijan and the mutual interest in promoting their development will eventually fix everything,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his visit to China.
Radar Armenia spoke to political commentator Hakob Badalyan on the topic.
- Putin stated that there are problems in relations between Moscow and Baku. What are the real reasons for the issues that have arisen in these relations: are they due only to current political issues or to more profound and systemic factors?
- If we look deeper, the reason is that Aliyev is trying to play with different geopolitical directions and centers, including those centers that would like to see Azerbaijan behave somewhat harshly or antagonistically towards Russia. This has a geopolitical dimension, and Azerbaijan is seeking to capitalize on the opportunities to meet this demand.
-Can these issues turn into long-term tensions, affecting the strategic partnership between Russia and Azerbaijan, or are they temporary?
-At least we see that this tension has been dragging on for several months, starting with the incident with the Azerbaijani plane in December last year. Whether this is a long time or not depends not so much on the duration of time, but on the nature of the tension. Neither side is showing much effort to escalate the situation further and is trying to keep it manageable. And this means the presence of deep layers and an ambiguous situation, because Azerbaijan, on the one hand, playing on the demand to position itself against Russia, also imagines that it has appeared in the role of creating strategic risks for Russia and opening a second front for Russia, which is not a very safe role, and, naturally, Aliyev is trying not to cross specific lines. Putin’s latest reaction is evidence of this, and we should bear in mind that, despite Russia’s certain behavioral and tactical retreat in the Caucasus, Russia has mechanisms for a fairly velvet presence in Azerbaijan, and I think Aliyev understands this well.
- In your opinion, will the current problems in Russia-Azerbaijan relations be easily resolved, and do you see deeper cooperation in the future?
- Deeper cooperation, for example, we see in the economic sphere. They may not be huge, but they are one of the sensitive, indicator circumstances. Let’s not forget that 2 days before starting the war against Ukraine in 2022, Russia signed an alliance declaration with Azerbaijan. I don’t think Aliyev could have taken that fateful step just like that. We understand what impact signing an alliance declaration with Russia had on international perception at that time. Despite the tension, no steps are being taken by any side to question the alliance declaration. This is also a criterion for assessing whether the parties to a deep conflict are not inclined.
Lilit Abrahamyan
