Radar Armenia’s interlocutor is international affairs expert Shahan Gandaharian.
– Russian-Ukrainian negotiations took place in Istanbul. How do you interpret their results?
– No breakthrough should be expected from the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. We are discussing a preliminary agreement regarding the exchange of bodies. A ceasefire is not yet in sight. The events on the ground suggest otherwise. Escalation tendencies are obvious.
– Because Trump gave 50 days to reach an agreement on the peace issue, do these negotiations indicate optimism?
– I do not think that the deadline will change the course of events. Pressures and measures will increase. The international community will resort to new sanctions. The geopolitics of isolating the Russian Federation is gaining new momentum.
– I would also like to touch upon the negotiations between Iran and EU member states. Will the situation defuse or vice versa?
– It is just a stop. It will defuse in the sense that a war will not break out. This does not mean that the issues will be resolved quickly. It is a phased, conditional process. The EU is acting under the orders of the US and following the rules it dictates. The actual negotiation or agreement will be on the Washington-Tehran line.
– The French president announced his intention to recognize the state of Palestine, which was followed by a critical response from the US Secretary of State. What did this mean? Will France take that step, or was this just an attempt to touch sentiments?
– If we look at the list of countries recognizing the state of Palestine, the impression is that the US, on the one hand, allows the recognition process to take place, and on the other hand, speaks out against it. Here, the criticism is more theatrical than substantive. Macron also has a problem with Jewish influence in France, just like Trump does in the US. But this is a general trend that is moving towards a “two-state” solution.
– I would also like to address the situation in the South Caucasus. It is known that the US president was optimistic about the signing of the Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement. Is there any basis for optimism, considering the statements coming from Baku?
– Trump’s enthusiasm is of a propaganda nature and is connected with the replacement of the Russian factor in the region. This conditions the message of optimism. The rest – settlement, peace – are of secondary importance. The main thing is the transformation of the Russian zone of influence.
– And since the talks are again about the roads passing through Syunik, what developments can be expected, taking into account the interest of the superpowers in this topic?
– Syunik will maintain the status quo for now. In the distance, a distinct American presence is outlined in this border area with Iran and the point where Turkey and Azerbaijan meet. In this way, the US will control both the Turkey-Azerbaijan bridge and the unblocking of Iran to the West.
Interviewed by Arman Galoyan
