Radar Armenia's interlocutor is Suren Surenyants, the chairman of the Democratic Alternative party.
- What is Israel's goal in attacking Iran, to what extent can this develop into a full-scale war, and what are the possible scenarios for its development?
- Netanyahu's policy has been the same for a long time: a major war in the Middle East will break out, in which the US will also be involved. In other words, he wants to involve the US in the war against Iran. This is the most considerable intrigue. I hope the US administration will not give in to this dangerous provocation.
We are already in a problematic scenario because we saw the escalation at the rhetorical level and in a specifically targeted manner. This, in my opinion, is the continuation of Israel's genocidal policy, by which it aborted the negotiation process that existed between the US and Iran, which had a somewhat promising course despite the sharp difference in the positions of the parties on various issues.
However, this was a dialogue that gave rise to some hopes. The United States claims that it did not participate in this operation. Of course, for Tehran, these arguments are not entirely convincing, judging by the statements coming from Iran. Now, the main question is: will Netanyahu manage to drag the United States into a war against Iran if Iran retaliates? I hope not, but scenarios with a significant escalation component are not ruled out, and this, as you know, will also pose significant challenges for Armenia.
- What impact can the Iran-Israel conflict have on the South Caucasus, in particular, on Armenia?
- If the most dangerous scenario works, and there is a significant war, also with the participation of the United States, then the strategic importance of Azerbaijan for Israel and the United States will increase in logistical terms. In other words, Azerbaijan will become a platform from which Iran will be targeted. The bet will be made on the Azerbaijani community living in Iran as a hotbed of separatism. Naturally, Azerbaijan will demand something important from its allies in return for these services, and Armenia will also pay that price. Only in the event of a significant escalation is there a possibility of an escalation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. If this goes according to the worst-case scenario, then the probability of an invasion of Syunik will be high.
- Can international players - the USA, Russia, China - restrain the escalation of the situation?
- I think so. We hope the United States, Russia, and China will have such a deterrent effect. It isn't easy to make predictions because if the USA did not favor the development of events that we witnessed. Still, nevertheless, Israel took such a step, which would mean that deterrent actions are not working so effectively.