Interview

Bordering China: a mechanism for the new geography of military operations. Gandaharian

Radar Armenia's interlocutor is international affairs expert Shahan Gandaharian.

- The US President's visit to the Middle East is expected, and although Israel has confirmed its plan to attack Gaza, it is assumed that they will take these steps after Trump's visit. Please comment on the upcoming visit. What are the expectations from Trump's visit? Why is he going there? What problems will he solve?

- Trump's visit to the region is supposed to be among the priority places for his visits. Israel's further steps are determined not only by Trump's visit but also by the fact that, in general, everything is coordinated with Washington. Washington turns on the green or red lights. It is not excluded that the Israeli attack on Gaza will resume. However, the military operations will not have the same capacity as before. Iran does not have the previous opportunities to support, and Turkey's support for Gaza is more declarative than military. The events will lead to the formation of a new government in Gaza, which will align with Ramallah. Tel Aviv has set a goal to neutralize the Hamas threat completely.

- Will Israel take more drastic military actions in Gaza? What consequences will this have?

- Negotiations will follow military clashes. The Gaza administration system, clarifications of the locations of the Israeli forces, disarmament of Hamas. However, it is not excluded that the "two-state" formula will return to the international agenda after all this. Tel Aviv is planning it, so it is trying to neutralize the military threat radically.

- The tension between India and Pakistan has escalated into a military conflict, but a large-scale war has not yet begun. Will the military operations escalate further, and will we witness a war?

- There will not be a large-scale war. Military conflicts will continue in recorded ways and with intermittent stages. From a global perspective, we should note that the geography of military conflicts is expanding, and the direction is gradually becoming the regions bordering China. The warring Pakistan and India are countries bordering China. This is the nail in the new geography of military operations.

- Please also refer to the visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to Moscow's refusal. Why didn't he leave? Was there a real political motive, or, in your opinion, did he stay for the commemoration of Heydar Aliyev?

- The commemoration of the elder Aliyev is a pretext. Going to Moscow or not is coordinated with Ankara in this case. By the way, let's note that Erdogan was not there either. And Erdogan's non-going was, in turn, under pressure from the US. No matter how declaratively Washington may imitate easing tensions with Moscow, the policy towards Russia has not changed. Let's not forget that Aliyev did not leave for Moscow, but Azerbaijani troops participated in the parade.

- How do you think Moscow will react to that step, considering that May 9 is always an important day for Russia, especially this year?

- Moscow is not in a position to react harshly. The aggressive de-isolation is trying to implement a policy. The number of guests and the countries they represent emphasize that Russia remains isolated.

- Please also refer to the Chinese President's visit to Russia. What did this visit mean, and what consequences will it have, if we take into account the tension between the US and China over tariffs?

- The visit of the Chinese President to Moscow is the most notable of the guests politically. Moscow is actively trying to form an axis with China, including other countries. However, China is not responding with the same enthusiasm. It is a message to Washington to keep the bridges open.

- There is a pause in the negotiations on the US-Ukraine agreement. Or is the impression deceptive?

- Yes, it is just a pause. The war will continue with such pauses, stops, in a hybrid aggregate form. One of the goals of the Ukrainian war was the duration, which allowed political trade to be carried out.

Arman Galoyan