Radar Armenia's interlocuteur is Shahan Gantaharyan, an international scholar.
- Basically, Israel and Lebanon have declared a ceasefire. How long will it last, and what consequences will it have?
- The USA and Iran have the leading role in establishing a ceasefire. Without their agreement, the ceasefire would hardly have come true. From this, the preservation depends on the relations between the two countries. It will be preserved because there are some thoughts of moving towards stabilization in Lebanon. The first consequence will be the election of the president of the republic, the deployment of the army in southern Lebanon, and the step-by-step programs to restore the economy. This is a common direction. It is cautious optimism because the situation depends on the leading players.
- How do you interpret the situation in the conflict with Palestine?
- I think the correlation will work. Initially, the center of the war was in Gaza, and Lebanon reacted to the events there with a derivative position. The roles were reversed when there was a change in the front direction. The epicenter was Lebanon. Now, the ceasefire in Lebanon will lead to the ceasefire in Gaza. Again, the relationship between the USA and Iran should be noted.
- How will the events develop in the Russia-Ukraine war, especially since Putin threatens that Russia may use the Oreshnik weapon to hit the decision-making centers in Kyiv?
- At the moment, the general trend is that in Lebanon and Gaza, the USA is working towards a ceasefire, while towards Russia, it is tightening the style in the form of military and sanctions. This trend of upheavals will continue with specific stops. The behavior of the West towards Russia will not change dramatically. NATO has already reached the border regions of Russia. The geopolitics of tightening the noose towards Russia will continue. There may be some stops, shocks, and aftershocks, but this direction will not reverse.
- After the Prime Minister of Georgia announced that Georgia would refuse to join the EU until the end of 2028, the situation in the country became tense. How will what is happening in Georgia affect the EU integration process of other countries in the region, especially Armenia?
- For now, Georgia is turning into a hotspot for the West-Russian proxy. The more Tbilisi moves towards the Russian Federation, the more the public sphere of Georgia will heat up, and, of course, reciprocally. Taking such "time outs" is predictable, but let's not forget that it was the "Georgian Dream" that chose the path to the EU and NATO. The issue of abandoning this path has not been raised yet; only the "time out" rule works.
Hayk Magoyan
