Interview

"Aliyev is either preparing for a new war, or he is trying to delay the signing of an agreement"

Radar Armenia's interlocutor is political scientist Armen Vardanyan.

- Azerbaijan calls on Yerevan to work in a bilateral format. Why does Baku want to work with Armenia without intermediaries?

- Azerbaijan is trying to push the mediators out of this game because the mediators are also putting pressure on Azerbaijan so that the interests of Armenia are taken into account in the peace process, including the interests of Armenians forcibly displaced from Artsakh. They want to get a peace agreement where there will be no question of Artsakh, and it will be thrown into the dustbin of history. Only after that are they ready to receive a peace treaty. That is why Aliyev also avoids negotiations on Western platforms. He does not go to Washington, Brussels, or Granada, knowing there will be tremendous pressure on him. That is why he wants to negotiate only on Russian platforms, where there will be no pressure.

- The President of Azerbaijan made a surprise announcement about going to extraordinary presidential elections. Why is Aliyev in a hurry, and what is the real purpose of these elections?

- As for the extraordinary presidential elections, this was quite an exciting combination, also unexpected. One of the options is that Azerbaijan is preparing for a new war. The previous time, when Aliyev went to the early presidential elections in 2018, he was preparing for a new war against Armenia. And so, speeding up the processes, he tried to go to military operations under very calm conditions. Now, it is included that he is preparing for a new war by speeding up the process. This is one of the options. And the second option is that the USA is putting pressure on Azerbaijan to sign a peace treaty with Armenia very quickly. It is not excluded that Aliyev, going to the presidential elections, is trying to delay and not sign a peace agreement with Armenia.

Many experts and officials in Azerbaijan openly state that they have to wait 1 year until presidential elections will be held in the USA at the end of 2024. They express hope that Trump will be elected president and that the pressures against them will disappear. He may be delaying the time for the presidential elections. America's Democrats have traditionally had a stricter stance towards dictatorial regimes, be it Russia, Iran, or Turkey. Even now, there are severe pressures on Azerbaijan. Contrary to this, Republican administrations, as a rule, can successfully cooperate with dictatorial regimes and disregard human rights violations occurring in those countries.

- What developments will the process of regulating Armenian-Azerbaijani relations have? Is there a possibility of signing a peace treaty?

- I have always been skeptical about the signing of the peace treaty. Last year, when they said that there was a chance to sign before the end of the year, this year, too, I have always said that I don't believe it. There are many reasons for this. The peace agreement will not be signed. It will fail, and we will stand on the threshold of a new war after some time. That's why you must look at reality soberly and be ready for all possible developments.

Hayk Magoyan