JPMorgan Chase continues to insist that a recession is likely. The bank estimates the probability of a downturn in the US and the world economy is 60%, despite President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause in most tariffs.
"Uncertainty over trade and domestic fiscal policy, continued significant losses in the stock market, and declining confidence make it difficult for the US to avoid an economic recession," JPMorgan economists said in their latest report.
The bank emphasized that with all other factors remaining constant, canceling the harsh tariffs against individual countries announced on "Liberation Day" is a positive step. However, the situation remains concerning, as not all factors are stable. "
In particular, JPMorgan noted that the current 10% global tariffs are a serious problem, having an impact 7.5 times stronger than the trade war of 2018-2019. "The increase in tariffs against China to 125% is a tax burden of about $860 billion, not including substitutions," the bank added.
"In our opinion, the US trade war is not over yet. Today's events are only the end of the beginning," JPMorgan concluded.
